The coronavirus outbreak has presented unprecedented challenges to co-ops and the grocery industry. The past several weeks have seen extreme shifts in shoppers’ behavior, significant supply difficulties and financial uncertainty. All this while co-ops endeavor to protect the health and safety of their employees, members and broader community. This has meant accommodating large increases in foot traffic; modifying processes for staffing, cleaning and ordering; and navigating local and national recommendations and mandates.

After the initial phase of preparation for quarantine, which included stockpiling of essentials such as household products and non-perishable items, consumers are now shopping differently. New habits typically take a little more than two months to form, so these new shopping patterns could last a while.

New Shopping Habits

We’ve seen some of these new shopping patterns firsthand. Shoppers are making fewer trips to grocery stores and spending more each time they shop. Seventy percent of shoppers now expect their purchases to last them for two weeks or longer. In March and April of this year, trip count is down 25%, but basket size is up 51%.* Consumers are also approaching meal planning differently now. More people are making lists before they go shopping, looking to maximize each grocery trip and make sure that they purchase the essentials.

Trends to Watch

In addition to retail observations and new consumer research, data from the 2008 recession can give us insights into what trends we may see more of in the coming weeks. Trends to watch include:

• Interest in larger package sizes. Consumers want to keep a well-stocked pantry, and research indicates this may continue even post-quarantine. This could mean continued demand for shelf-stable fruits and vegetables, shelf-stable soups, pasta and entrees/mixes, and family-sized prepared foods. In the four weeks ending March 22, shelf-stable items that were 36 oz. or greater saw growth rates 23% larger than items that are less than 36 oz.**
• Less demand for “on-the-go” solutions. With most people staying at home, there is less demand for energy bars, individually wrapped snacks and single-serving lunch meals (sandwiches, wraps).
• Staying home. Products that support at-home pursuits like cooking, gardening, DIY beauty and self-care are likely to continue to be popular.
• Vitamins and gut health. Concerned about health and well-being, consumers are purchasing more supplements and functional foods, particularly for gut health (e.g., yogurt, cottage cheese, pickled veggies, kombucha, etc.). Nutrition/wellness products overall are up 50%.**
• Reducing food waste. Given economic uncertainties, shoppers are increasingly conscious about money and scarcity, and therefore trying to reduce what they discard and make better use of the food they buy.
• More cooking! Pre-COVID-19, about half of all food was consumed via food service (e.g., restaurants, fast food, etc.). In the past few weeks, nearly all of that has shifted to grocery retail. Cooking and/or baking from scratch has boomed, and people are looking for both convenient, easy-to-make recipes and more ambitious cooking adventures. Welcometothetable.coop offers great recipe ideas for every dietary preference.
• Social media. Not surprisingly, people are looking to social media to fill the void created by social distancing. They’re using technology to maintain connections. In addition, consumers are relying on social media to learn how businesses are responding to the coronavirus.

Resources for More Information

This all remains very volatile and fluid, with consumer trends evolving week over week. If you’d like to dive deeper into these trends, check out our industry partners. IRi offers an interactive COVID-19 dashboard with live data and SPINS has several options for webcasts and reports about emerging trends.

*NCG Weekly Sales and Transactions, Week ending 4/12/2020

**SPINS, NCG, Total US, 4 Weeks ending 3/22/2020