Many companies prioritize their product lines in an effort to ensure the highest priority and best-selling items are in warehouses with ample inventory available during peak selling periods. That can impact the manufacturing cycle for a lower-priority item, and you may find there is less inventory available than usual going into the holidays. 

To mitigate the impact of potential fourth quarter supply chain issues, you can start preparing a plan today. How can you be proactive now so you are able to react and respond to other things during the height of the holidays? Which uncertainties can you eliminate ahead of time? Here are some recommendations:

• Pull movement reports by week for November through December 2023 and 2024 to understand when top-selling items peak and identify variances in sales compared to last year. It’s worth noting which items were on promotion versus those that were not, and items that have a longer selling period outside of the holidays, e.g., broth and flours. You may need a different strategy for items that sell consistently well throughout the holiday months compared to ones that peak only in the week prior to a holiday.
   
• Set target dates for inventory buildup and schedule reminders, being mindful of pre-order commitment ship dates and product shelf life. Take a peek at the “best by” dates on current shelf stock to get a sense of how close to the holidays you can reasonably stock up. (For example, if aseptic broths have a best by date of March 2026, it’s reasonable to assume it’s safe to bring in inventory earlier than normal to help prevent potential out of stocks.) For refrigerated items, it will be harder to create safety stock due to shelf life, but some items like butter can often be ordered further out.
   
• There are certain items you must have in stock to meet customer needs during the holiday baking season. Identify which of these you can forward buy now and set aside until then — look for products with a long shelf life, or with no expiration date, like parchment paper.
   
• Have a plan B for your needs, review it often and adjust it when needed. It’s less important to have a specific brand in stock than it is to have specific products. Make sure to identify additional sources of distribution for key items, including competitor stores. In a pinch, it’s better for the co-op to purchase select items from a competitor than for your customers to visit them and potentially purchase additional items while shopping there.
   
• Reach out to your UNFI and KeHE account managers and brokers to see if any shippers or mods (larger merchandisable displays often sold in quarter- to full-pallet quantities) are available for higher-selling items. Often these need to be pre-ordered by a certain date in order to have them produced, but there’s generally lower risk they’ll be out of stock and it may be possible to allocate them to your account directly.
   
• Inventory on bagged and boxed stuffing may be especially challenging again this year as some of the more traditional offerings may not be available, so planning early will be necessary! Please refer to the Winter Holiday 2025 Preorder file for details on available SKUs. Leverage alternative sources to secure stuffing, such as conventional wholesalers (like SuperValu) or direct store delivery bread wholesalers like Pepperidge Farms and Arnold’s Bread (Brownberry in the Midwest and Orowheat in the West).
   
• In addition to staple items like broth, butter and flours, below are some key peak holiday items — meaning they see a large spike in demand during the holidays only. These products are less likely to sell in volume prior to mid-November and may have larger inventory constraints (stuffing and cranberry sauce, for example). They include: parchment paper, aluminum pans, bagged stuffing, gravy (wet and/or dry mix), cranberry sauce, mulling spice, pie shells (frozen and graham), chestnuts, crispy onions, pumpkin and fruit pie filling, sage seasoning, baking chocolate (bars and powder).
   
• And finally, pay special attention to November and December Co+op Deals forecast events. The better that stores are able to forecast actual demand, the less likely it will be that out of stocks occur during the promotional period.
   

Also worth considering: Another potential shortage your co-op may face is a staffing shortage, due to ongoing labor shortages. Factor how you will address this uncertainty into your holiday plans.

The more you can eliminate uncertainties ahead of time with careful planning and advance ordering, the less you’ll have to worry about at the peak of the holiday season.