Although many co-ops are currently busy with the summer season, it’s also prime time to prepare your store’s product mix and merchandising for the back half of 2024. No end-of-year purchasing plan is complete without preparation for the big grocery occasions in October, November and December. Now is the opportunity to stock your shelves with selections that appeal to all types of consumers.

Let SPINS data be your guide to seasonal trends as you finalize your 2024 assortment. 

Treats

Ranking as the second most popular holiday in the United States, per the National Retail Federation (NRF), Halloween presents a big opportunity for food retailers and brands. Halloween spending in 2023 was expected to reach $12.2 billion, exceeding the 2022 record of $10.6 billion. A record share of the population (73%) was expected to participate in Halloween-related activities in 2023, up from 69% in 2022.

Consumers are planning ahead for Halloween and purchasing candy early in the season.

• Halloween candy is purchased 2.5 weeks in advance, on average.
• 17% of Gen Z shoppers are most likely to make multiple trips to purchase candy.
• Fun-size is the favorite for Halloween, while full-size is a favorite for Gen Z and minis for Millennials.
• Chocolate is the reigning favorite of Halloween, followed by peanuts and gummies.
• Gummies, fruity and sour candy are more popular among younger generations.

Turkey

Thanksgiving generates an additional $1 billion in annual sales across natural and conventional retailers. With 91% of consumers planning to celebrate, shoppers are seeking products that align with their dietary needs.

Food categories to be well-stocked on that over-indexed during Thanksgiving 2023 were:

• Frozen pies and baked goods
• Baking mixes and ingredients and flours
• Refrigerated cookie and pastry dough
• Chutneys and savory jellies
• Both frozen and refrigerated plant-based loaves and roasts

Thanksgiving also allows for more variety in terms of flavors than in years past. A surge in savory and spicy flavors boosts Thanksgiving plates. Pumpkin spice has declined over the past two years, leaving room for other flavors that offer a fresh twist on classic dishes and desserts: 

• Cranberry-flavored beverages grew +4% at NCG co-ops
• Chutney and savory jellies that are hot/spicy grew +115% at NCG co-ops
• Gingerbread flavored products grew 11% at NCG co-ops

And lastly, be mindful of key SPINS attributes as consumers shopping for their holiday menus are seeking products to meet their dietary needs and support animal welfare; growing attributes like labeled gluten-free, labeled vegan, paleo-positioned and grass-fed. Examples of product groups that posted double-digit growth during Thanksgiving 2023 were:

• Gluten-free dessert
• Vegan loaves and roasts
• Paleo-positioned ingredients

Tinsel

Finally, the winter holidays are an excellent time to raise a glass in celebration, with many non-alcoholic options more popular than ever. 

Alcoholic beverages across NCG co-ops have been down 4%, while non-alcoholic beverages jumped 44% during the latest 52-week period, with NA spirits (+110%) and NA wine (+92%) leading the way.

It’s also the season of cold and flu surges during the winter months. Over-the-counter (OTC) and flu remedies are a first line of defense, and younger consumers drive these trends as we see a rise in natural products. Despite being a smaller category, OTC cold, flu and allergy natural products are growing faster in sales versus conventional products, and innovation has played a major role.

Additionally, most of the top 10 dollar trending functional ingredients in wellness are herbs. Concerns are rising over safety and side effects of synthetic ingredients, therefore demand for herbs increases with eight of the top 10 trending functional ingredients being herbs. Those are:

• Ginger
• Bee propolis
• Eucalyptus
• Mullein
• Echinacea
• Elderberry
• Vitamin C
• Pomegranate (NEW!)

Regardless of season or reason, the fourth quarter is the perfect opportunity to stock your shelves and be the go-to destination for all shoppers this year and beyond!

Source: SPINS Natural Channel + Conventional (powered by Circana)