The arrival of fall flavors has become its own unofficial shopping holiday as evidenced by social media celebrations each year when pumpkin spice hits coffee shops. Sales for fall flavors begin to edge upward in mid-August just as students head back to school and Labor Day (the unofficial start of fall) is on the horizon. Predictably, peak sales occur in the weeks following Halloween and Thanksgiving, signaling the arrival of the winter holidays.

That’s why now is a great time to start thinking about fall flavors and these four factors affecting seasonal shopping.

Pumpkin Spice Takes Center Stage

Last fall, pumpkin spice units declined amid a challenging economic situation that affected the entire industry. Inflation forced shoppers to spend thoughtfully, while supply chain issues caused product shortages in many markets. Still, pumpkin spice had wider distribution in more product offerings than ever before, leading to some highlights:

• Shelf-stable cookies with pumpkin spice were the flavor’s top new item with an increase of 500K+ units.
• Ready-to-drink beverages with pumpkin spice had the largest year-over-year increase (39%) by eating occasion.
• Pumpkin spice creams and creamers had 67% unit year-over-year growth.
• Pumpkin spice products within body lotion and moisturizers increased units by 268%.
• 164 subcategories sold pumpkin spice products (up 3 year-over-year). *

Friendsgiving Is Changing Tradition

Friendsgiving celebrations are not new, but they have gained traction as everyone from college students to co-workers want to celebrate the holiday season together before heading out of town. One benefit of Friendsgiving is that it doesn’t need to adhere to the time-consuming and potentially expensive traditional Thanksgiving template. That’s why charcuterie boards have become a Friendsgiving staple and a great basket builder. For example, shoppers can pick up these seven items to create a convenient, affordable board that works as an appetizer or main course at a $42 ARP (average retail price):

• Unsliced bread loaves ($4.14 ARP)
• Genoa salami ($6.25 ARP)
• Jamon/Serrano ham ($10.33 ARP)
• Brie cheese ($7.42 ARP)
• Shelf stable green olives ($4.65 ARP)
• Breadsticks ($4.34 ARP)
• Hard salami ($5.80 ARP) **

Apple Cider and Gingerbread Are Diversifying Their Offerings

Pumpkin might be the fall flavor that gets the most attention, but gingerbread and apple cider are gaining traction as “limited time only” flavors. Both gingerbread and apple cider continue to expand into new categories beyond food and beverage and offer alternatives to pumpkin, which could be approaching saturation. Looking at 2022’s fall sales:

• Apple cider donut debuted as a new flavor for one shelf-stable cereal brand, and it became a top-3 velocity item.
• Apple cider products in air fresheners saw a 169% increase in units.
• Within the coffee beans and grounds subcategory, gingerbread flavored products saw a 25% increase in units.
• Gingerbread flavors saw a 49K increase in units within the ice cream subcategory. *

Festive Fall Drinks Go Beyond Tea and Coffee

Pumpkin, gingerbread, apple and other seasonal flavors have made their way into the alcohol aisle with stouts and lagers, liquors, ciders and even non-alcoholic options. Keep an eye on the non-alcoholic segment as it continues to grow and reveal new opportunities. For the 24 weeks ending April 23, 2023, non-alcoholic product units were up 15%**, and that trend is likely to continue — especially as more innovative brands test fall flavors and expand their offerings.

As fall approaches, expect brands to offer up a variety of new flavors as shoppers are eager to explore beyond the classics.

*Based on SPINS Natural Channel + Conventional, Custom Fall Flavors Attribute for the 12 weeks ending December 4, 2022, vs. a year ago.

**Based on SPINS Natural Channel + Conventional, Product Type Attribute for the 24 weeks ending April 23,2023.