Get Ready for Fall Trends: Back to School and Halloween

While some folks see Aug. 1 through Labor Day as a time for cookouts and road trips, parents know this is back-to-school season and want to plan accordingly. Here are some tips!

Back to School: Breakfast and Lunchbox Essentials

Standout subcategories below prove that health, convenience and taste win the morning, while the demand for convenient, nutritious, kid-approved lunchbox items is in full swing.

High-Growth Breakfast Items

Drinkable yogurt: +14.5%: A grab-and-go option that delivers protein, probiotics and convenience.
Granola/muesli: +11.3%: Often paired with yogurt or milk, this wholesome option is gaining traction.
Frozen pancakes: +3.7%: Frozen but fast.
Dairy yogurt: +6.3%: A strong performer across ages, particularly in natural and protein-rich varieties.
Adult and family cold cereal: +5.5%: Family-focused cereals are picking up.

Naturally Positioned Products

Data shows a clear shift toward natural breakfast items over conventional ones. Between 2022 and 2024:
Natural breakfast sales grew by 56 million units.
Conventional breakfast sales dropped by 19 million units.

This signals a major opportunity for retailers to expand offerings from brands that prioritize clean ingredients, low sugar and functional nutrition.

Lunchbox Sandwich Staples

Frozen sandwiches (+21.4%): Parents are embracing frozen options for grab-and-go ease.
Refrigerated natural snack kits (+17.7%): Portion-controlled, balanced meals.
Artisanal and specialty breads (+15.8%): From sourdough to whole grains.
Seed and nut butters (+11.0%): With peanut restrictions in schools, almond, sunflower and other nut butters are gaining ground.

Dairy Delivers on Nutrition

Snack cheese and string cheese (+20.2%): Convenient calcium-rich choices.
Dairy yogurt (+6.3%): Still a reliable go-to for protein and probiotics.

Snack Smarts: Balanced and Convenient

Fruit snacks/dried fruit (+13.9%): A healthier twist on snacks, with natural sugars and fiber.
Granola bars (+12.9%): The lunchbox classic remains strong thanks to cleaner labels and improved taste.
Meat sticks (+12.0%): High-protein and shelf-stable — ideal for energy without a sugar crash.

Still Room for Treats

Non-chocolate candy (+21.4%): Colorful, fun and often allergen-friendly.
Cookies (+1.8%): Still a staple, though growth is slower compared to other treat options.
Crackers with dip (+4.6%): Portion-controlled indulgence that kids love.

Protein in a Pinch

Need something a little more substantial for hungry teens or athletes? Meat snacks are having a moment — and not just your typical jerky. Think:

Chomps beef sticks (clean ingredients)
Country Archer minis (great for protein on the go)

Fast Fuel for Busy Days

Energy gels and chews are compact, quick and perfect for busy, on-the-go schedules. Top picks include:

Honey Stinger Organic Gels
GU Energy Chews

Key Takeaways

Stock up on high-growth items.
Offer variety across snack and treat categories to meet different dietary needs.
Bundle snack + treat combos or create lunchbox displays to help time-strapped shoppers.
Highlight “protein” and “on-the-go” with signage.
Offer allergy-conscious options like nut-free snacks and non-dairy treats.

Halloween: Welcome to ‘Summerween’ 2025

As Halloween continues to evolve, 2025 is proving to be a year of earlier celebrations and changing consumer behaviors. Retail trends show that Halloween is no longer confined to October — candy sales are now picking up as early as mid-July, launching a new seasonal phenomenon dubbed “Summerween.”

Early Sales and Innovation Drive Growth

Sales data reveals a clear trend: Halloween candy sales begin to accelerate by mid-July and rise consistently through August. The second week of August 2024 alone saw sales nearing $12 million, highlighting how consumers are engaging with the season earlier than ever.

Supporting this momentum is a significant uptick in product innovation. The number of Halloween-themed candy products launched in July has tripled over the past four years, growing from just 50 new items in July 2021 to 168 new launches in July 2024.

Non-chocolate Options

While chocolate still commands the majority share of candy sales at 54%, the fastest-growing segment is actually non-chocolate candy, which includes gummies, marshmallows and candy corn. Sales in this category are up 43% year over year, indicating a growing appetite for chewy and colorful alternatives. In contrast, chocolate candy has seen a 7% decline in unit sales.

Health Is Not a Priority for Halloween Shoppers

Insights into candy positioning further reinforce this trend toward indulgence over health. Conventional candy — defined as standard, non-health-positioned treats — has experienced strong growth, with dollar sales increasing 16% and unit sales up 9%. Meanwhile, natural-positioned candy, which includes better-for-you and organic options, saw only a 2% increase in dollar sales and a notable 11% drop in units sold.

Variety in Chocolate Amid Rising Cocoa Costs

The Halloween 2025 season is unfolding against a backdrop of rising cocoa prices and significant shifts in consumer purchasing behavior. As cocoa hit record highs in early 2025, chocolate manufacturers have faced unprecedented cost pressures, leading to widespread shrinkflation.

Despite smaller unit sizes and increased prices per ounce, consumer demand remains strong. Interestingly, the response has not been to scale back entirely on chocolate but rather to shift focus: Shoppers are gravitating toward mini and variety packs, seeing them as offering more options and greater perceived value.

While full-size bars experienced a 2.1% decline in unit sales, minis and variety packs surged, with a 50.7% increase in units sold year-over-year. Notably, this occurred even as the average retail price for mini bags rose 19.0%, and the price per ounce increased by 21.4% — the highest among all pack types.

As cocoa costs continue to challenge the industry, offerings must balance pricing strategies with consumer expectations. The ongoing shift toward mini and variety packs emphasizes that value is not always about volume — increasingly, it’s about choice, experience and satisfaction.

Sources: SPINS Natural Channel + Conventional & Convenience Channel (powered by Circana); 12 Weeks ending 11.4.24 vs YAGO and SPINS Natural Channel + Conventional & Convenience Channel (powered by Circana); 12 Weeks ending 11.4.24 vs YAGO